Bernstein analysts told clients Monday that the CLARITY Act has made more progress than markets expected and that investors have not priced in any positive surprise ahead of Tuesday’s cloture vote.
Why Bernstein Thinks the Market Is Wrong
In a note cited by The Block, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote that prediction markets have been too pessimistic on the CLARITY Act, with Kalshi odds climbing back above 30% after Senate Republicans released what they called a final draft Sunday night.
The draft incorporates 126 substantive changes Democrats requested, and President Donald Trump agreed to most of a bipartisan ethics proposal, including giving state attorneys general an enforcement role and adding crypto divestment and blind trust conditions for public officials.
“Any positive surprise is definitely not priced in,” the analysts wrote. Bernstein called the ethics offer “probably as good as it gets,” arguing the concessions could win over enough Democrats to clear Tuesday’s 60-vote cloture threshold.
