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The agency now sees global oil supply falling 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, with a full recovery pushed to next year
Vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire deal reached between the U.S. and Iran. (Shady Alassar/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The International Energy Agency cut its global oil supply and demand forecasts for 2026 on Friday, warning that stalled diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran and renewed attacks on shipping lanes are pushing the market toward a deeper shortfall than previously estimated.
The IEA now projects world oil supply will fall by 5.7 million barrels per day this year, down from a prior forecast of roughly a 4% annual drop, the agency said. A full recovery in output from Middle East producers has been pushed to 2027. That figure is 940,000 barrels per day worse than the IEA's August projection, marking the steepest full-year demand contraction recorded since the Covid-19 pandemic cratered consumption in 2020, according to Bloomberg.
