Advisers to President Donald Trump have reportedly warned that the ongoing conflict with Iran could extend through the remainder of his presidency. Despite Trump’s public statements suggesting the conflict might conclude following the midterm elections, the Jerusalem Post reports that his advisers have expressed concerns about a prolonged engagement. The U.S.-Iran war, which began in February 2026, has seen continued military actions, including U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. This sustained conflict appears to be affecting market sentiment regarding the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution, specifically the inclusion of reconstruction funding in any potential U.S.-Iran deal by the end of 2026.
Recent activity suggests a decrease in the perceived likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal being finalized within the year. The sub-market for Iran Reconstruction Funding’s inclusion in such a deal has seen a slight dip in YES pricing, now at 11.5% from 12% a day prior. Observers note that the ongoing military exchanges and the warning of prolonged conflict may be contributing to this shift, reflecting skepticism about reaching a comprehensive agreement soon.
The report from the Jerusalem Post appears consistent with a decreased likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflict, impacting related prediction markets. The continued military engagement and the adviser’s warnings align with a moderate expected move in market pricing, as participants reassess the prospects of a diplomatic breakthrough.
