The Australian share market lost 9.4 points on Wednesday (-0.11 per cent) to hit a 20-day low.Oil prices surged to a six-week high of nearly $US100 per barrel on reports of explosions near Iran's Kharg Island, and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacking Saudi energy facilities, setting oil installations ablaze. Catch up on the day's news on the ABC's business, economics and markets blog.Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.PinnedWed 9 Sep 2026 at 12:37pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 12:37pmMarket snapshotBy Gareth HutchensASX 200: -0.11% at 8,911 points (close)Australian dollar: +0.28% at 72.33 US cents Wall Street: Dow Jones (-1.2%), S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%)Europe: FTSE (-0.1%), Stoxx 600 (-0.1%)Spot gold: +1.03 % to $US4,399/ounce Oil (Brent futures): +1.28% at $US99.17/barrel Iron ore: -0.55% at $US100.05/tonne Bitcoin: +0.88% at $US79,242Prices current around 4:25pm AESTUpdates on the major ASX indices: Collapse all postsFilter PostsAll33Key Events9Analysis1Economy1Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 4:58pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 4:58pmUntil tomorrowBy Gareth HutchensThat's it for today. Thanks for joining us on the markets blog.We'll be back tomorrow morning to catch up on developments in global markets overnight.Until then, look after yourselves.Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 4:41pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 4:41pmBest and worst performersBy Gareth HutchensAmong the best performing stocks on the ASX200 index were Minerals 260 (up 8.5 cents, +10.37%) and Austal (up 31 cents, +7.13%, at $4.66).The worst performing stocks in the index were SEEK Limited (down 76 cents, -5.60%, to $12.80) and PEXA Group (down 41 cents, -5.5%, at $7.04).Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 4:24pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 4:24pmASX sheds 0.1pcBy Gareth HutchensTrading has finished for the day and the S&P/ASX200 index has lost 9.4 points (-0.11%) to close on 8,911.4 points.Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 4:19pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 4:19pmSantos boss calls for changes to proposed national gas reservation planBy Gareth HutchensContinued..The ABC's energy reporter Daniel Mercer says Kevin Gallagher, the Santos chief executive, used his address at the National Press Club today to call for major changes to the proposed national domestic gas reservation plan.Under the proposal, the federal government wants gas producers to supply the equivalent of 20 per cent of their exports to the local market every year.Crucially, the government said exporters should be required to sell that amount of gas and not just simply offer it.But Gallagher said forcing such a condition could backfire by oversupplying the market in the short-term and scaring away investment in new supplies in the long-term.He says the government should instead follow the lead of Western Australia, where gas producers are only required to offer gas under that state’s reservation policy.“The practical solution here is to replace the must-sell provision with must-offer on commercial terms, the same as the Western Australian reservation,” he said.“If gas is not able to be sold on term contracts, then it should be made available on domestic spot hubs.”According to Gallagher, it was wrong to suggest Australia was facing gas shortages or a price crisis.He said the country had “enormous” reserves under the ground but had simply failed in recent times to exploit them.And while he said it was imperative the government avoid applying a reservation policy to existing long-term contracts with buyers overseas, it was a different story for new fields such as the Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory.“Australians right[ly] expect their own needs to be met before we export gas overseas,” he said.“But it is not true that east coast gas supply issues were caused by Queensland’s LNG export industry, nor that there is an imminent supply or price crisis.“I have publicly supported domestic reservation as part of (the Beetaloo’s) development since 2018.“And the time to put a reservation policy in place is now before billions of dollars are invested.”Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 4:14pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 4:14pmSantos chief executive takes swipe at gas rivalsBy Gareth HutchensDaniel Mercer, the ABC's energy reporter, listened into the National Press Club today.Kevin Gallagher, the chief executive officer and managing director of Santos, spoke about “Australia’s energy opportunity in an uncertain world”.Here's what Dan say sabout it:With the east coast gas export industry bracing itself for a federal reservation scheme, the boss of Santos has turned to mind games.Kevin Gallagher used his address to the National Press Club today to taunt his rivals in the Queensland LNG industry.Santos operates the Gladstone LNG (GLNG) project, one of three giant gas export plants built on Curtis Island, about 530km north of Brisbane.Alongside GLNG are the Australian-Pacific LNG plant operated by Origin and ConocoPhillips and Queensland Curtis LNG, run by Shell.Long-running tensions between the competitors have spilled into the public in recent days amid frustration with Santos and GLNG.At the heart of those frustrations are GLNG’s historic and consistent depletion of domestic east coast gas supplies for export to customers in Asia.Dan Clark, the head of APLNG, this week took the extraordinary step of effectively blaming GLNG for driving up prices in the past.In an opinion piece published in The Australian, Mr Clark said it was no coincidence that domestic gas prices had “split” from the international market and fallen after “one LNG exporter chose to reduce” local purchases.Gallagher hit back at those remarks today.“It would appear that I’m living rent-free in a few of the heads of our competitors around Gladstone at this point in time,” Gallagher said.continued..Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 3:37pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 3:37pmRBC Capital Markets change rate callBy Gareth HutchensRBC Capital Markets had been thinking that the RBA would be keeping rates on hold at 4.35% until November 2027, at which point the RBA would cut rates.But it has changed that rate call.It now thinks the RBA will stay on hold in September, but then hike rates in November by 25bp to reach a fresh cycle high of 4.60%.It then sees the RBA keeping rates "very uncomfortably on hold" with the risk of further tightening."This call change stings a little, because we were long on the side that RBA should hike rates to 4.60%, front-loading to short-circuit building inflationary pressures," they write."The RBA estimates the neutral rate to be somewhere within the range of 3% to 4.25%. And we were of the view that policy settings needed to be decisively restrictive, not just “somewhat restrictive” as per the RBA’s characterisation, to wrangle inflation back down."We originally thought they’d get there in June, then pushed the call back to August, and finally dropped it after Q2 inflation printed on the softer side and the Budget tax changes saw the outlook for the housing market look sharply worse."But as the more recent round of data has shown, some of those longer-term inflationary forces never really dissipated – demand has stayed firm, nominal incomes have held up (especially after the latest minimum wage lift and abolition of junior pay rates) and some of the second-round inflation effects out of the Middle East conflict may still be emerging in final prices."On top of that, the RBA’s frustration around inflation being too high, and their nervousness that it stays higher for longer, cannot be ignored."Recent comms from both chief economist [Sarah] Hunter and deputy governor [Andrew] Hauser feels like a set-up for further tightening."But the million dollar question is when will they pull the trigger?"Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 3:12pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 3:12pmTrump's approval rating not goodBy Gareth HutchensCarol Kong, CBA economist and currency strategist, has circulated this chart today.She says high energy prices incentivises the Trump administration to make a deal with Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, because the war is not doing Trump's polling any favours two months out from the mid-term elections."The war remains unpopular in the US," she says."The war is weighing heavily on President Trump’s approval and the prospects for the Republicans in the 3 November mid-term elections."The Democrats are favoured to win a majority in the House of Representatives. We had expected the Republicans to retain the Senate. However, with the Fed now expected to hike interest rates before voting, we now expect the Democrats to win both houses of the Congress."To secure a deal to end the war, the US would need to make difficult concessions to Iran. A likely deal would involve concessions on Iran’s economic demands, some level of Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, a reduction in the US’s military presence in the region, and further pressure on Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon."You can read a more in-depth and interactive look into Trump's approval rating at The Economist's approval tracker.Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 2:46pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 2:46pmNike's spectacular fallBy Gareth HutchensToday's ABC Business Daily podcast is now live.Nike has lost its edge.More than US$230 billion has been wiped from its market value since its 2021 peak, and its share price is now back around levels last seen more than a decade ago.For a brand that has dominated global sport for generations, that's a remarkable fall.So what went wrong? Was it China, competition, brand dilution, or simply a business that stopped setting the pace?ABC Business reporters Lin Lin and Dan Ziffer unpack how Nike ended up being dropped from the top 100 companies on the US share market, and what its slide tells us about the risks facing even the biggest global brands, on ABC Business Daily.Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 2:39pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 2:39pmNormal stuffBy Gareth HutchensJust a normal discussion involving the Alignment Science lead at Anthropic (Evan Hubinger) and someone who just apparently quit Anthropic (Jacob Coxon) over concerns about where AI is heading.Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 2:18pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 2:18pmNike falls out of top 100 US stocksBy Daniel ZifferNike was the goddess of victory, but the most recent few years have been more Icarus than anything else for the sportswear company: he flew too close to the sun with wings made of wax.(It didn't end well).Selling direct-to-customer on apps and in Nike stores seemed like a way to increase margins without giving that money to pesky retailers.But those retailers took shelf space away from Nike and replaced it with upstart brands like Hoka from France and Switzerland's On, while names like Under Armour, Arc'teryx, Salomon and Lululemon all took bites out of what used to be Nike's markets.Add in a slump in Chinese sales (and a bit of geopolitics) and you've seen the share price fall more than 40% this year.Later today you'll hear the podcast where Lin Lin and I get right into it, but it's a fascinating story about what can go wrong.The news overnight is that Nike will fall out of the top 100 US stocks. It's not as substantial as falling out of the Dow Jones or our ASX 200, but it's not nothing either.Disclosure: I own a small amount of Nike shares. I bought them to teach my children about the stock market. This has probably been a good lesson about "cool" stocks.Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 2:04pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 2:04pmGeopolitics, war, oil and marketsBy Gareth HutchensHere's a cheery note from Rabobank's Michael Every:"The US just hit five more Iranian oil tankers, citing attempted strikes on one of its warships, and warned more will be sunk if Iran tries it again. It also imposed more economic war via aviation sanctions."The Saudis and Houthis are on the brink of new war after a series of strikes at Saudi cities, followed by Riyadh's reprisals and the threat of 'consequences [the Houthis] cannot handle.'"Qatar and the UAE both said the Gulf cannot rely on US alone for the region's security: but Russia can’t extend power there now; China can't or doesn't want to; Europe can't and won't – so that leaves Turkey and Israel, both eyeing the other suspiciously; and as France and Canada joined the UK in issuing trade sanctions on Israeli settlements, the EU reportedly wants to pursue closer Israel ties on air defence and space."Oil remains close to $100, and notably, Shanghai oil is now trading higher than Brent having been vastly lower in the early stages of the Iran War. Crack spreads remain worryingly high all over. Refined product stocks remain worryingly low."Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 1:36pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 1:36pmSharemarket down 18.7 pointsBy Gareth HutchensIt's just past 1:30pm AEST and Australia's sharemarket is currently down 18.7 points (-0.21%).Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 1:07pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 1:07pmSix new AI data centres proposed for TasmaniaBy Gareth HutchensUnnamed companies are looking at setting up six data centres in Tasmania, a document tabled by the state government in parliament reveals.Two of the six "confidential" projects are at the feasibility stage, meaning a preferred site has been selected and the proponents are undertaking further assessments to determine overall feasibility.Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 12:52pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 12:52pmLarge decline in working days lost to industrial disputes in June quarterBy Gareth HutchensNew Bureau of Statistics data show there was a large decline in the June quarter of working days lost to industrial disputes.It shows 21,200 days were lost, a decrease from 47,600 in the March quarter.But as is usual, when you zoom out, the data show that large-scale industrial disputes are a thing of the past.In 1993, the Keating Labor government passed the Industrial Relations Reform Act which legislated the full introduction of enterprise bargaining, and for the first time in Australia's history, a limited "right to strike".Afterwards, the number of employees involved in industrial disputes and the number of working days lost to industrial disputes both cratered. And in the years after that, the screws were tightened further with other legislative changes.Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 12:14pmWed 9 Sep 2026 at 12:14pmBetaShares analyst: 'We should not be complacent about oil hitting US$100 a barrel'By Gareth HutchensCameron Gleeson, Betashares senior investment strategist, says investors shouldn't be complacent about the risk of oil returning to US$100 a barrel after the latest flare-up in the Middle East."President Trump and Secretary Bessent have shown they can jawbone energy markets in the short term, but they cannot wave away the geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz," he said."The risk is that even a temporary disruption to tanker traffic or a further escalation in the region could quickly feed into energy prices."Oil markets remain highly sensitive to headlines from the Middle East, and investors have very little margin for error when supply risks collide with already sticky inflation."Beyond the price of crude, attacks on refineries both in the Middle East and Russia is also increasing the prices of downstream products like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. US diesel reached $5.9 a gallon on Monday, the highest on record."Higher refined product prices hurts the consumer, adding renewed pressure to inflation and bond yields, which is exactly the combination equity markets do not want to see, particularly while valuations remain sensitive to any repricing in interest-rate expectations."He says Australian equities won't be immune from those pressures, because higher oil prices and bond yields can weigh on consumer-facing companies and rate-sensitive parts of the market."However, Australia's equity market also has meaningful exposure to resources and energy, which may benefit if commodity prices increase," he said."In this environment, global energy companies and royalty companies can be useful additions to a traditional portfolio of equities and bonds."They are not a silver bullet, but they can provide exposure to real assets and commodity-linked revenues that may benefit in an environment of higher and more volatile energy prices."Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 11:57amWed 9 Sep 2026 at 11:57amBrent crude futures hit US$99.33 a barrelBy Gareth HutchensBrent crude (futures) is trading around $US99.33 a barrel, up 1.45%.It's putting the price back near its most recent high in July, and around $18 to $20 away from its March and April highs.Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 11:25amWed 9 Sep 2026 at 11:25amSingapore gasoil spot prices hit highest level since May 1By Gareth HutchensVivek Dhar, CBA's mining and energy commodities analyst, has circulated this chart.He says Singapore gasoil spot prices, which are the main benchmark for Australian diesel prices, have risen to the highest level since May 1, 2026."The use of diesel in mining, farming and logistics makes diesel a critical input to economic activity," he said."Gasoil prices have been primarily supported by disruptions to diesel exports from the Persian Gulf and Russia, and more recently by fading US exports."Higher Chinese diesel exports provide some relief, but not enough to reduce concerns of a tight Asian diesel market."Persian Gulf diesel exports have yet to recover in the same way as crude oil compared to pre-war levels due to the longer restart time for refineries in the region, damage to refining capacity and as the pipeline bypasses are transporting crude oil only."The fresh attacks on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery this week, which has been offline since an attack in July, underscores the ongoing risk to Middle Eastern refinery infrastructure," he said.Key EventWed 9 Sep 2026 at 11:04amWed 9 Sep 2026 at 11:04amShares of ASX gold miners fall sharply, US more likely to lift interest rates in SeptemberBy David ChauGold miners are dominating the list of worst performers on the ASX 200 today.Shares of Westgold Resources, Evolution Mining, Resolute Mining, Kingsgate Consolidated and Northern Star Resources have fallen between 3% and 6.5% each.That was after the price of spot gold dropped more than 1% overnight to $US4,360 an ounce.Basically, higher oil prices are fuelling inflation concerns and raising expectations that the US Federal Reserve may lift interest rates at its next policy meeting on September 15-16.Many of today's worst performers on the ASX are gold stocks. (LSEG)The probability of a US rate hike is now 58%, according to the latest market pricing from LSEG.Generally, when expectations are high for a rate rise, that pushes up the US dollar because people will earn more interest on their cash.So assets that pay no income stream, like gold, tend to suffer in that environment.Wed 9 Sep 2026 at 10:52amWed 9 Sep 2026 at 10:52amASX turns negative, drops to fresh six-week lowBy David ChauAfter opening slightly higher, the Australian share market has now dipped into negative territory.The ASX 200 was down 0.2% to 8,900 points, which means it's now at a fresh six-week low — or its lowest level since late July.About 120 out of 200 stocks are trading lower, so they're mostly down.Today's best performers include medical technology company 4DMedical, mining giant BHP, oil and gas stock Woodside Energy and data centre operator Megaport.I'll have details on the worst performers shortly!Miners and energy stocks are among today's best performers. (LSEG)