The European Court of Auditors has published two findings that sit awkwardly together. The EU has no reliable picture of the size or structure of its illicit tobacco market.
The criminal networks running that market, according to the auditor who led the report, are using artificial intelligence to work out where to move next.
Special report 23/2026, published on Wednesday under the title “Combating the illicit trade in tobacco in the EU: fragmented efforts and persistent gaps”, estimates the annual cost to EU and national budgets at €13bn. Roughly one in 10 cigarettes made in the bloc is smuggled or produced illegally.
Petri Sarvamaa, the report’s reporting member, made the technology point in an interview with EUobserver.
“Artificial intelligence has hugely benefited the criminals because they can very easily find out where to move next,” he said, describing organisations that track enforcement activity across member states and analyse where the loopholes are.
