Cumulative price hikes across old and new inventory have already reached an average of 60 per cent
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Ahead of festive season, retailers flagged September for the lowest Android smartphone sales in the year, owing to persistent price hikes, upcoming Apple launches, and shifting consumer behaviour.2026 is expected to report the worst festive quarter in years as analysts and retailers alike flag dismal smartphone sales in the first week of September.Weakest festive quarterMainline retail sales dropped by 30-40 per cent in the second half of August, and then another 40-50 per cent decline since September 1, as per Kailash Lakhyani Founder Chairman, All India Mobile Retailers Association (AIMRA). Leadership across major OEMs estimate annual sell-out volumes to decline by 25-30 per cent in Q3, severely hitting Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 shipment numbers. Overall, retailers in General Trade reported a 40 per cent decline.“Q3 is on track to be the weakest festive quarter in years. We expect shipments to decline by 25-30 per cent during this period, by far the steepest hit of any quarter this year. Normally, the festive quarter is when the market gets its biggest lift, this year it’s set to be the biggest drag instead,” Upasana Joshi, Senior Research Manager, Devices Research, IDC Asia/Pacific told businessline.To her point, consumers are now either holding off until major Dussehra, Durga Puja, and Diwali festive promotions begin, turning to second-hand/refurbished devices or simply repairing existing handsets, as per AIMRA. However, analysts report that the refurbished segment costs have gone up as well owing to higher repair cost.Raised priceAnother cost contributor for new Android launches is the upcoming iPhone launch including the much awaited foldable iPhones. Already Samsung has raised prices on select products by up to 10 per cent starting September 7. Price increases in low- and mid-range segments are expected in this week from Vivo, OPPO, Realme, OnePlus, and Motorola.Meanwhile, cumulative price hikes across old and new inventory have already reached an average of 60 per cent, with a possibility of prices doubling either before or immediately after the upcoming festive season. This marks the third price hike in September. At least two more price hikes are expected before the festive season, as per Counterpoint Research.Volume drops beyond 20 per cent directly threaten net retail profitability, as per industry estimates. This means that if prices double by year-end as projected, consumer demand could stall completely post-Diwali, hitting small retailers the hardest.“Affordability will remain a key concern. Channel inventory build-up could also make festive planning more challenging. October will be a crucial month to assess how demand responds to higher prices and promotional activity!” said Shubham Singh, Tech Analyst at Counterpoint Research.For now, the slump has pushed retailers to hoard in extra inventory, securing an additional one to two months of stock at older prices to safeguard their margins. To weather the interim, industry analysts suggested, industry stakeolders suggested that the Government of India reduce GST on smartphones from the current 18 per cent back to 5 per cent to ease the financial burden on end-consumers. Further, federal regulators must step in to monitor and control volatile memory chip prices, similar to oversight mechanisms used for essential commodities like oil and gas.Published on September 8, 2026
