IN the middle of the hurricane season, Trinidad is facing a drought watch in September, while Tobago and parts of north-eastern Trinidad could move into drought warning conditions in October.This according to the latest outlook from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) yesterday.It comes during a period where Trinidad and Tobago is experiencing significant heat stress.The TTMS reported that yesterday’s maximum temperatures reached about 33°C in Trinidad and 32°C in Tobago, but the heat index (feels like temperature) reached 36°C in Trinidad and 35°C in Tobago.Today is expected to remain hot and mostly sunny.The TTMS warned yesterday of the possibility of a developing agricultural drought from Piarco westwards across the lower Caroni River basin during September.The outlook is based on the three-month Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for July to September.
The TTMS said south-western Tobago is expected to experience moderately dry conditions, or a dry spell, while central and north-eastern Tobago, north-eastern Trinidad and the upper Caroni River basin are expected to remain dry.The short-term outlook shows the dry conditions potentially worsening.By the end of October, the TTMS anticipates drought warning conditions across Tobago and north-eastern Trinidad.Moderately dry conditions are expected across the upper Caroni River basin, while a drought watch is expected from Piarco westwards across the lower Caroni River basin into north-western Trinidad.By the end of November, Tobago is expected to remain under drought warning, while a drought watch is anticipated for the Caroni River basin extending into north-western Trinidad.The TTMS says a short-term drought is expected across Tobago, north-eastern Trinidad and the lower Caroni River basin between October and November.Agriculture, water supplies at riskThe developing dry conditions could have significant implications for agriculture and water supplies.The TTMS said the agriculture sector faces an elevated risk to crops and livestock because of irregular rainfall, an increase in hot-spell days and declining soil moisture.The water sector could also be affected through reduced recharge rates for dams, underground reservoirs and streams, resulting in lower surface-water availability for distribution systems.The TTMS advised the water and energy sectors to implement continuous water-conservation measures, warning that drier-than-usual conditions during the latter half of 2026 could extend into the 2027 dry season.The public is also being urged to practise proper water storage and usage.Farmers were advised to monitor water use, maintain adequate irrigation and water storage on fields, weed regularly to reduce competition for water and monitor for pests that may favour less-wet-than-usual conditions.Long-term concernThe longer-term outlook is also raising concern.By the end of November, moderately dry conditions are expected across northern Trinidad, westwards across the lower Caroni River basin into north-western Trinidad.The TTMS said a long-term drought watch may be required by December 2026 or January 2027.The 12-month SPI-based outlook assesses potential impacts on large surface-water reserves and groundwater.The Met Service said moderate-to-strong El Niño patterns expected late in 2026 may suppress predictable wet-season rainfall totals while increasing temperatures and evaporation rates across northern South America and the Lesser Antilles.More dry daysRainfall in July was near normal across Trinidad and parts of Tobago but was below normal at Crown Point.At Piarco, 215mm of rainfall was recorded in July, representing 94% of the average. Crown Point recorded 115.8mm, or 72% of its average.The TTMS said between June and July, the frequency of dry days increased nationwide.Relatively wet days increased in Trinidad but decreased in Tobago, while wet days of 10mm or more decreased nationwide.Over the three-month period from May to July, conditions were dry at Crown Point, south-western Tobago and Valencia, and slightly dry across central and north-eastern Tobago and north-eastern Trinidad.South-western Trinidad experienced conditions ranging from a moderately dry spell to a budding drought.The TTMS said the latest Dryness/Drought Indicator Outlook should be used by relevant sectors to prepare for worsening conditions and to strengthen drought-management and early-warning measures.The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year, with peak activity typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
