China's export shock is pushing the global economy to a breaking point, and the U.S. may have to clean up the mess, former trade official says | Fortune

While President Donald Trump’s tariffs have caused much heartburn on Wall Street, China’s cheap and overwhelming exports have also been rippling through the global economy.

But the Chinese growth model is running out of road, setting the stage for another global economic crisis, according to Michael Froman, a former U.S. Trade Representative and current president of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Writing in Foreign Affairs last month, he warned “the world’s ability to absorb Chinese overcapacity is approaching a breaking point.”

For example, the International Monetary Funds estimated that global GDP growth is running around 3.1% this year, while China’s trade surplus expanded more than 20% in early 2026. That’s after China posted a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025—the largest in recorded history—growing three times faster than global goods trade.

Now there’s widespread pushback against the flood of Chinese exports. Most notably, Trump hiked tariffs on China last year and made it the centerpiece of his “Liberation Day” trade war. But even once-stalwart defenders of open markets, like the European Union, are racing to put up trade barriers against China.