Athens is preparing for a range of escalation scenarios with Ankara following Turkey’s decision, after the Greek-Israeli “Achilles Shield” air defense agreement, to revive claims concerning the demilitarization of Greek islands and “gray zones” in the Aegean.
The prevailing view at the Prime Minister’s Office is that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for reasons concerning Turkey, “seeks tension, not crisis.” Nevertheless, Athens is preparing diplomatically and on the ground, including the potential extension of territorial waters to 12 nautical miles south of Crete.
According to reliable sources, Greece, for the first time, explicitly cited this right in a recent diplomatic demarche rejecting Turkey’s declaration of “national” marine parks within the Greek continental shelf. The note stressed that Greece’s right to extend the territorial waters of its islands to 12 nautical miles under the Law of the Sea remains unaffected. Athens also wants its arguments formally documented should disputes eventually reach the International Court.
Three developments could trigger tensions in the coming weeks: Greece’s presidential decrees defining maritime uses under Marine Spatial Planning; Turkey’s announced “Blue Homeland” bill, which Athens fears could seek to restrict navigation, research and fishing beyond Turkish territorial waters; and the start of the Greece-Cyprus electricity interconnection project (Great Sea Interconnector), now involving France’s Meridiam as majority shareholder.
