Athens is waiting to see what Turkey will do with the proposed legislation on maritime zones it is reportedly drafting, while it also thinks a further ramping up of tension in the Aegean this summer is likely. The Turkish side is making all sorts of excuses for its current escalation, both in words and deeds. It claims, for example, that it had to respond to Greek moves like the deployment of a Patriot missile battery on the island of Karpathos.
There is also an element of urgency on Ankara’s part, however. One Turkish analyst with in-depth knowledge of Greek-Turkish affairs argues that Turkey “has been waiting years for an agreement to be reached on the Aegean and is watching time continue to go by without progress.” He deliberately dismisses the fact that Ankara keeps adding some new claim or another every so often.
Ankara’s haste may be explained by something else, too. Turkey sees a window of around two years before it loses the tactical advantage it thinks it has over Greece. It is alarmed by the prospect of Greece further bolstering its naval fleet with the remaining French frigates it has ordered and the addition of Italian ones, by its acquisition of F-35 fighter jets, and by the development of Israeli defense systems. Add to this a dose of paranoia over Israel’s stance toward Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and concern about what the future holds takes on existential dimensions. Western diplomats have been speaking in recent weeks of outright paranoia in Ankara’s centers of power, which see conspiracies lurking everywhere, from attacks on the Turkish lira to new coup attempts.
