Mizuho Securities just did the Wall Street equivalent of saying “you’re great, but not right now.” Analyst Vijay Rakesh slashed his price target on Intel from $109 to $92 while maintaining a Neutral rating, acknowledging that the chipmaker’s AI story is genuinely compelling but arguing the math doesn’t work in the near term.
The cut is notable partly because of the direction Mizuho had been traveling. Earlier in 2026, Rakesh had been raising his Intel target, setting it at $128 in June and then $135 in July. The reversal to $92 represents a roughly 32% pullback from that July peak.
The bull case Rakesh isn’t ignoring
Rakesh outlined four factors that could propel the stock over time. First, demand for server CPUs driven by agentic AI is expected to accelerate through 2027. Second, CPU supply constraints are likely to persist through 2027, which creates pricing power for manufacturers who can deliver. Third, Intel’s advanced-packaging revenue, built around its EMIB-T technology, could reach $3.5B by 2029. And fourth, PC refresh cycles are proving steadier than feared, providing a floor under Intel’s client computing segment.
Intel’s most recent quarter backs up some of this optimism. Data Center and AI segment revenue climbed 24% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, fueled primarily by rising server CPU demand.
