East Rajasthan, south-west and north-west Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Himalayan hills may receive maximum rain until Monday morning, according to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
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Heavy to very heavy rain lashed parts of East Rajasthan and East Madhya Pradesh through Thursday into Friday, emphasising the continuing northern and eastern tilt of the monsoon as the season enters the last month of September. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported heavy rain during the 24 hours ending Friday morning also over Assam and Meghalaya; other parts of the North-East; hills of West Bengal and Sikkim; West Uttar Pradesh; Uttarakhand; Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi; Punjab; Himachal Pradesh; and West Madhya Pradesh.Well-marked ‘low’The weather action is being sustained by a well-marked low-pressure area over central parts of northern Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh, with a monsoon trough running from Sri Ganganagar through Narnaul, the centre of the ‘low,’ Daltonganj and Berhampore, before extending eastwards towards Tripura .But the system’s moisture pipeline has temporarily weakened. The south-eastern end of the trough has moved out of the Bay of Bengal and is now lying over land across Tripura, cutting off the direct inflow of fresh moisture from the Bay. The well-marked ‘low’ could therefore remain nearly stationary over the next two days.Complex configurationThe broader weather configuration remains complex. A second trough stretches from north-east Rajasthan to Manipur, passing across the low and through Bihar, north Jharkhand, the hills of West Bengal and south Assam. A third extends from south Gujarat to Jharkhand, again crossing the low-pressure area. Adding another layer is a western disturbance over Afghanistan, which continues to influence the weather over the northern parts of the country. Taken together, the systems are expected to sustain widespread rain, including heavy spells in places, over parts of North-West India, East and North-East India and Central India through September 10.Modest revival in southThe rain-deficient South Peninsula, meanwhile, is showing signs of a modest revival rather than a decisive monsoon turnaround. A cyclonic circulation over coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining south-west Bay, together with a trough extending from South Interior Karnataka to the Gulf of Mannar across Tamil Nadu, is expected to trigger scattered to widespread rain over the peninsula during the period. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across much of the region, with Coastal Karnataka potentially emerging as the wettest pocket.The September 4–10 forecast points to a patchy recovery in southern rainfall rather than a full-fledged monsoon comeback. The main weight of the monsoon continues to rest over North-West, Central, East and North-East India, even as the South Peninsula picks up scattered rain. Published on September 4, 2026
