Outlook until the end of the week suggests the heavy rain belt (in red) may move across North-West India towards the Himalayan foothills, offering the rain-soaked Central India some respite.
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www.windy.com
The monsoon continues to build on a comeback after days of sustained, widespread rainfall erasing much of the season’s early shortfall. Worst-affected regions Central India and the South Peninsula, are back to 14 per cent deficit each, well within India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) ‘normal rainfall’ range of -19 to +19 per cent.The recovery is set to broaden as it pushes into North-West India this week, where the deficit narrowed to 22 per cent on Monday. East and North-East India remain the lone laggards, with rainfall still 42 per cent below normal. But the region’s towering climatological rainfall benchmark, shaped by the Himalayas and the moisture-rich Bay of Bengal, means even substantial rain often leaves it looking more deficient than the rest of the country. System stalls again?The monsoon, however, seemed to have stalled for yet another time on Monday, delaying the final phase of its advance across the country. Its northern limit passed through Jamnagar, Udaipur, Ajmer, Jhunjhunu, Hisar and Bathinda for the third successive day, according to the IMD.Conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance into more parts of Gujarat, the remaining areas of Haryana and Punjab, and additional parts of Rajasthan over the next three days. The monsoon normally covers the entire country, including Rajasthan, by July 8. This year, however, it is likely to be delayed by a few days.More heavy rainThere is no let-up for parts of already soaked West India and Central India. The IMD has predicted heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy falls over Konkan and Gujarat for another day on Tuesday, and over Madhya Maharashtra on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy rainfall is also likely over Coastal Karnataka on these days.Depression holds onMeanwhile, the depression that crossed the Odisha coast and moved inland was centred on Monday about 60 km north-northeast of Rourkela, 70 km south-southwest of Ranchi, 100 km east-southeast of Jashpurnagar and 180 km southeast of Daltonganj. It is expected to track north-west across Jharkhand, north Chhattisgarh and adjoining East Madhya Pradesh until Tuesday, sustaining widespread rain over the region.Seasonal troughThe seasonal trough across North-West India, the principal rain-bearing axis that channels moisture from the Bay into the interior, extended on Monday from south-west Rajasthan to the east-central Bay, passing through Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh and the depression over south Jharkhand and adjoining north interior Odisha. Its alignment was close to its climatologically favourable position, a configuration typically associated with active monsoon conditions across central and eastern India.Shear zone activeThe upper-air shear zone, a corridor of strong wind discontinuity that often enhances deep convection and intense rainfall, stretched from Nashik through Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar and Chandrapur in Maharashtra to the Puri-Bhubaneswar region of Odisha. Along the west coast, the offshore trough extended almost uninterrupted from south Gujarat to north Kerala coast. Together, these features continued to support active monsoon conditions over several parts of the country, although large areas of Peninsular India remained largely rain-free. Published on July 6, 2026
