United States President Donald Trump’s order to substantially reduce joint military exercises between South Korea and the US has revived speculation about another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Trump has stressed his “very good relationship” with Kim and expressed interest in meeting him again while criticizing the joint military exercises with South Korea as costly and hostile.These developments have encouraged optimistic predictions of another summit between the two leaders, yet such expectations may be premature. A summit requires not only Trump’s willingness but also Kim’s incentive to participate, a workable agenda and a mechanism for bridging differences.
A useful tool for examining the situation is what I call “IMPACT Plus”, an adaptation of the basic communication model of sender, message, channel, receiver and response.
IMPACT expands the model for diplomatic communication into six elements: initiator, message, passage, audience, consequences and tracking. “Plus” examines additional features such as pressure, inducement, warning and reassurance as well as clarity and ambiguity. The framework helps avoid sweeping conclusions from isolated statements or actions.
As an initiator, Trump’s intention is relatively clear. He emphasizes his personal relationship with Kim and openly expresses interest in reviving summit diplomacy. The message, however, is more complicated.
