US stock futures opened September in the red, weighed down by surging bond yields, climbing oil prices, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again. The Nasdaq-100 dropped roughly 1% in early trading, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures each slipped about 0.5%.
Yields, oil, and a hawkish Fed
The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to approximately 4.79%, its highest level since January 2025. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hit 3%, a mark not seen since 1996, and European benchmark yields touched multi-year highs as well.
The catalyst for much of the yield spike traces back to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent speech at Jackson Hole, which leaned unmistakably hawkish. Markets responded by pricing in a 65% to 67.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. The July PCE reading, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 3.7% year-over-year.
Brent crude pushed above $91 to $92 per barrel, driven by heightened military tensions between the US and Iran. Supply concerns centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows.
