WASHINGTON -- Six months since US and Israeli air strikes against Iran launched a conflict that has shaken energy markets and disrupted global shipping, there is still no clear end to the confrontation. While Iran's military capabilities have suffered major damage, it retains leverage in the Strait of Hormuz.Experts interviewed by RFE/RL from across Washington's policy spectrum see the next phase being shaped by four questions: how long Iran can withstand economic pressure, can diplomacy turn military gains into a durable settlement, what happens to Hormuz, and whether Russia and China help Tehran rebuild.'Economic Onslaught'Retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward, a former deputy commander of US Central Command, describes the situation as a "steady state." But he argues that the clock is ticking for Tehran."Time is their biggest problem," Harward told RFE/RL, saying sustained economic pressure could eventually become an internal threat to the Iranian government.
Bread-and-butter issues sparked the mass demonstrations in December-January that were put only down with brutal force involving the killing of thousands of protesters.This is how Washington is now presenting the conflict, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing what he called an " economic onslaught" of measures to further isolate Iran on August 24. Bessent will press G20 finance ministers on this during meetings in Asheville, North Carolina, on August 31-September 1.Harward said the pressure could become an internal threat if Tehran eventually struggles to pay the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Basij militia, and other state institutions, or if ordinary Iranians face shortages of fuel and other essentials.Winter conditions, he said, could make the pressure particularly consequential.China is central to the calculation.Elaine Dezenski, head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said China's economic relationship with Iran is significant but not an alliance in the traditional sense.
