Executive summary
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran is reshaping global energy markets, shipping routes, and foreign policy attention in ways that carry significant and underappreciated consequences for U.S.-Africa relations. The direct economic shocks to Africa are real, but the United States itself faces great risks of getting strategically distracted at the precise moment when competition for minerals, trade, and alliances with African countries is most intense. China, France, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and India are accelerating their engagement on the continent, meaning any retraction or stall in U.S.-Africa engagement will come with a high geopolitical opportunity cost.
Background
High uncertainty about U.S. commitment will accelerate African governments’ existing efforts to diversify partnerships. France’s recent Africa trade summit resulted in an announcement of $27 billion in investments, while Russia has expanded its security footprint in the Sahel. The UAE has dramatically surged its investment in Africa, reaching $97 billion, triple China’s total, in 2022 and 2023, while China remains dominant in infrastructure and minerals and has expanded zero-tariff trade access to all 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic ties. Together, these relationships give African countries strong alternatives to U.S. engagement.
