Over the six months of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have fallen by 96%, with Reuters reporting that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has brought gas shipments to an almost total halt.
Before the war began in late February, Qatar accounted for around 20% of global LNG exports. However, since March, the country has managed to ship just 18 LNG cargoes, compared with 509 during the same period in 2025. According to Reuters’ estimate, Qatar has lost around $24 billion.
As Andreas Schröder, head of gas analytics at ICIS, told The Insider, EU countries are likely to enter the heating season with a gas deficit. Total storage inventories are expected to be 5.7 billion cubic meters below target.
“The forecast is based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until March 2027, but the actual duration of the blockade is unknown. This leaves market participants having to make educated guesses. At present, it appears that markets are increasingly pricing in a scenario of a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Replacing Qatari LNG with alternative supplies to Europe will be difficult. Between March and July 2025, Europe accounted for 67% of U.S. LNG exports. However, during the same period in 2026, that share fell to 51%. At the same time, East Asia’s share (China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) of U.S. supplies rose from 10% to 16%, while Asia’s overall share increased from 16% last summer to 29% this summer.
