The head of China’s biggest refiner just moved the timeline on one of the most consequential calls in global energy. Sinopec Chairman Hou Qijun told an earnings briefing in Hong Kong that China’s oil demand probably peaked in 2025, a full two years earlier than the company had previously projected.
The forecast keeps shrinking
Sinopec had been working with a 2027 peak estimate, itself a revision from even later targets floated as recently as late 2024. The company expected Chinese consumption would top out at no more than 800 million metric tons annually.
Sinopec isn’t the only major Chinese energy player reading the room this way. CNPC, the country’s largest oil and gas producer, had already flagged that refined oil product consumption was peaking as early as 2023.
The acceleration from a projected 2026-2030 peak window down to 2025 represents a meaningful compression.
