LONDON: Global oil demand will keep growing until around the end of this decade despite peaking in top importer China in 2027, as cheaper gasoline and slower electric vehicle adoption in the United States support oil use, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.
The IEA, which advises industrialized countries, did not change its prediction that demand will peak this decade, a view that sharply contrasts with that of producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which says consumption will keep growing and has not forecast a peak.
Oil demand will peak at 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029 and then fall slightly in 2030, a table in the Paris-based IEA’s annual report shows. At the same time, global production capacity is forecast to rise by more than 5 million bpd to 114.7 million bpd by 2030.
A conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted the risk to Middle East supplies, helping send oil prices up 5 percent to above $74 a barrel on Friday. Still, the latest forecasts suggest ample supplies through 2030 if there are no major disruptions, the IEA said.
“Based on the fundamentals, oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement. “But recent events sharply highlight the significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security,” Birol said.
