Gartner reckons $1.6 trillion year is just the start, and don't expect a bust anytime soon
Semiconductor revenue is set to nearly double this year, with Gartner projecting the industry will bring in $1.6 trillion in 2026, up sharply from $809 billion in 2025Memory chips are driving almost all of that growth: DRAM and NAND revenue are each expected to roughly triple or quadruple, pushing memory past non-memory chips in total revenue for the first time. Gartner expects memory alone to top $1 trillion by 2027.Last year, memory revenue was $220 billion vs $589 billion for non-memory chips.
DRAM revenue is expected to bounce 246.6 percent in 2026, while NAND flash revenue is expected to see growth of 371.9 percent.
The ultimate cause of this run on memory is the AI infrastructure construction boom, underpinning demand for high-end servers and GPUs. Manufacturers such as Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix found it more profitable to prioritize production of these chips, leading to a shortfall of the mainstream memory types needed for PCs, smartphones, and other devices, bumping up average unit prices in this area. The Register has reported on sharp price hikes that buyers of PCs and of smartphones are facing. The market for phones in particular is forecast to shrink by 15 percent this year, as consumers balk at higher price tags.
