WINNERS & LOSERS: The memory shortages pushing consumer electronics prices higher are expected to worsen through the rest of this year and into 2027, with possible relief not arriving until 2028. While manufacturers and industry analysts largely attribute the spike to AI infrastructure demand, a new California lawsuit accuses the three companies that dominate DRAM and NAND production of conspiring to exploit those conditions and artificially inflate prices.
Ethan Tan, a memory industry consultant and former Samsung China executive, told Jefferies Equity Research analysts during a recent briefing that he expects memory prices to rise by 40% to 50% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the prior quarter, and by another 30% to 40% in Q4. Those figures significantly exceed prior estimates from Western investors and Jefferies' own internal research.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron together produce nearly all of the world's DRAM and NAND, which commands far higher margins in AI data centers than in consumer PCs, smartphones, or game consoles.
With data center demand currently exceeding the three companies' combined production capacity, prices have climbed as much as 700% over four years. Consumer memory has grown prohibitively expensive as a result, prompting steep price hikes from Apple, Sony, and Microsoft, among others.
