The Ukraine war, fewer grain routes and high energy costs cloud the picture for late 2026
A new food security threat is emerging as Black Sea grain disruptions combine with weaker harvests and rising energy and fertiliser costs stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
The world is not yet facing a grain shortage, according to economists. But some of its strongest wheat harvests are struggling to reach global markets just as rival exporters have less to spare.
Russia and Ukraine have relatively good wheat crops, but attacks on Black Sea ports, vessels and export infrastructure are disrupting shipments and pushing up global wheat prices in the short term.
The two countries accounted for about 27% of global wheat exports in 2025-26, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
