The trilateral trade deal that once unified North American commerce is quietly becoming two bilateral ones. Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard announced that the country expects to land trade terms with the United States comparable to those taking shape in the parallel US-Canada negotiations, signaling confidence even as the clock ticks on a shifting negotiation landscape.
The statement came after the US decided on July 1, 2026, not to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in its current form, opting instead for annual reviews and separate bilateral conversations with each neighbor. What was designed as a unified continental trade architecture is now being renegotiated in two distinct rooms.
From trilateral to bilateral
The USMCA has governed roughly $2 trillion in trilateral trade since it took effect on July 1, 2020. Its first formal six-year review was always expected to be a significant moment, but the US decision to abandon the existing structure entirely and pursue separate tracks with Mexico and Canada exceeded what many trade watchers anticipated.
Canada moved first. US-Canada negotiations advanced rapidly ahead of a tariff deadline on August 19, 2026, creating a benchmark that Mexico is now positioning itself to match or exceed. Ebrard framed Canada’s progress not as a competitive threat but as a useful reference point, suggesting Mexico views the Canadian deal as a floor rather than a ceiling for its own ambitions.
