The trade agreement that governs roughly $1.5 trillion in annual commerce across North America is fracturing. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has drawn a sharp line between Mexico and Canada in the ongoing USMCA review process, calling Mexico’s approach “quite pragmatic” while effectively accusing Canada of stonewalling.
The US has decided it will not renew the USMCA for another 16 years when the July 1, 2026, deadline hits. Instead, the administration is pivoting to annual reviews and bilateral negotiations.
The great divorce of trilateral trade
The USMCA replaced NAFTA and has been in effect since July 1, 2020. It mandates a review every six years, making the 2026 checkpoint the first real stress test of the agreement. The review was supposed to address trade deficits, rules of origin for auto manufacturing, and long-simmering disputes in sectors like dairy and energy.
Mexico showed up ready to negotiate. Multiple rounds of talks have already taken place, and the next meeting between US and Mexican officials is scheduled for the week of July 20, 2026. Greer’s characterization of Mexico as pragmatic signals that real progress is being made on the American side’s core demands around tariff acceptance and market access.
