Sánchez has one year until Spain’s election deadline. The odds are against him.

We are now one year away from the latest possible date — Aug. 22, 2027 — that Spain can hold a general election.

For embattled Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, it looks like it’s going to be a bruising ride to get that far. He insists he will seek reelection, brushing aside the predictions that he is doomed by pointing to his well-established knack for defying political gravity.

But this time, the odds are especially stacked against him and his fragile minority government, which has never appeared so isolated.

The challenges that lie ahead are so daunting that Sánchez could well chuck the schedule and call for an early vote.

Here’s why he’s up against it.