As the US-Iran ceasefire expired this week and negotiations stalled, oil markets edged higher but still appeared surprisingly calm given warnings of a looming crunch in oil supplies. For nearly six months, the world has coped with the extraordinary decline in supplies since the US-Israel attacks on Iran began on Feb. 28, through a combination of stock releases, alternative routes and demand erosion. Expectations earlier in the crisis were that the staggering losses of Mideast crude and products supplies — now surpassing 2 billion barrels — would drain inventories to operational stress levels by June. That proved to be overstated, but the latest balances point to a crunch in the next two or three months. On the supply side, markets have proven to be quite resilient. An average 20.4 million barrels per day of crude, refined products and other liquids transited the Strait of Hormuz prior to the war. Of this, 3.9 million b/d was rerouted, approximately 5 million b/d continues to pass through the strait (although volumes fluctuate greatly) and 2 million has come from higher production outside the Mideast Gulf, according to Energy Intelligence calculations. Inventory releases — strategic, commercial and private — averaged a further 6.1 million b/d over the period, bringing the total to about 17 million b/d. The resulting shortfall of 3.4 million b/d represents the potential decline in consumption over the period, as well as the margins of error in measuring inventory changes, which can be classified, and so-called "dark" shipments through Hormuz.