The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index climbed 0.2% in July to 99.5, marking the fourth time in six months the gauge has ticked upward. More notably, the six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in over four years, a milestone that suggests the US economy may finally be pulling out of a prolonged soft patch.
The reading landed above consensus expectations, which had penciled in a flat month. After a revised 0.1% decline in June, July’s uptick looks less like a blip and more like a pattern trying to establish itself.
What the numbers actually say
The LEI’s six-month annualized growth rate hit +0.2% for the January-to-July period. The last time this figure was in positive territory was sometime in early 2022.
The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.2% in July to 114.8. The Lagging Index matched that pace with a 0.2% gain to 120.4.
