The finding
Before the disruption the Strait of Hormuz ran at about 91 transit calls a day, the mean over the trailing year to 28 February 2026. The line that decides the market is a 7-day average of 60, roughly two thirds of that baseline. The contract does not ask for a full recovery. It asks for two thirds of one.
Traffic collapsed on 1 March 2026, and the 7-day average fell through the line in early March and has not returned. Its best week in the entire disruption peaked at 34 (30 June), the latest reading is 12 (19 July), and the trough was 1 (14 March). The average has not reached 60 since 3 March, and no raw daily count has since the collapse.
The line takes 420 transit calls in a week. The strait’s latest week carried 85.
The Ships and the Line · Vera Research
