Robert Ferris put the question to forecasters and executives for CNBC on 15 August. The average American car is now 12.8 years old, on Mobility Global’s figures. A new one costs close to $50,000, and nobody selling software-defined vehicles will say they last that long.
Sam Fiorani forecasts vehicles for AutoForecastSolutions, and he gave the blunt version. “We honestly don’t know how long these vehicles will last,” he said. “We’re already seeing problems with hardware not being able to deal with new software.”
Two answers already exist
Tesla said in 2016 that every car it built carried the hardware for full self-driving. Elon Musk reaffirmed it in 2019, naming the Hardware 3 computer as the one that would deliver it. In April this year he said those cars need new computers and cameras for unsupervised FSD. Qualifying owners get a hardware upgrade or a discounted trade-in, and Tesla did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Rivian is being sued over the same shape of problem. This desk covered the class action in June. It was brought by owners of first-generation R1T and R1S vehicles, marketed with hands-free, eyes-off driving.
