Thursday, August 13th 2026 - 09:03 UTC
In the second-round scenario, Lula takes 48% of voting intentions against 39.1% for the Liberal Party senator
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds an 8.9-point lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, according to the CNT/MDA poll released on Tuesday. The gap stood at 12.5 points in the June survey.
In the second-round scenario, Lula takes 48% of voting intentions against 39.1% for the Liberal Party senator. In June the figures were 49.3% and 36.8% respectively. The narrowing reflects both a 1.3-point decline for the president and a 2.3-point rise for the opposition candidate, variations that individually fall within the 2.2-point margin of error. The current gap between the two, by contrast, exceeds it comfortably. Blank and spoiled ballots account for 11% and undecided voters for 2%.
In the first round, Lula leads with 42.4%, virtually unchanged from June, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro on 28.7%, Ronaldo Caiado on 4%, Romeu Zema on 3.3% and Renan Santos on 2.8%. If no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes, the two leading contenders go to a runoff, an outcome that has occurred in every Brazilian presidential election since 2002.
