Brazil · Politics

Key Facts

—Runoff gap Lula holds an 8-point lead (45% to 37%) over Flavio Bolsonaro, signaling a solid but not insurmountable advantage 15 months before the election.

—Approval near-even Lula’s approval (48%) and disapproval (47%) are statistically tied, showing a deeply divided electorate that could swing on economic performance.

—High rejection Flavio Bolsonaro is rejected by 57% of voters, a ceiling for his candidacy that makes it hard to expand beyond his base in a runoff.