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Two successive weeks of primaries brought two successive shocks for progressive candidates in purple states and carry an important lesson for people watching politics:
It’s noisy out there!
With little high-quality polling in either Michigan or Wisconsin, polling averages showing big leads for progressive candidates were driven largely by partisan polling. And prediction market bettors followed suit, going all-in for those candidates. The two combined to create the mirage of a sure thing ahead of primary day.
But actual voters served up tight margins.
