90 days to price the rain: Why El Niño is a corporate balance sheet issue

By

Caroline Wambugu

Head of Group Finance Controls, Performance and Investor relations

Safaricom PLC

Kenya’s weather experts have now put a number on what many had treated as speculation. The Kenya Meteorological Department estimates an 81 percent probability of a very strong El Niño this year, bringing above-normal rainfall during the October to December short rains, and a 97 percent chance that the event extends into early 2027. For finance leaders, that is not just a forecast but a planning assumption.