The finding
A market jumps and no headline explains it. The first thought is always that someone knew something. We went looking for how often that gap was real, and found something quieter: a map of where we were looking.
Over the four days our matching ran best, June 13 to 16, we recorded 1,761 sharp repricings of 3 cents or more in one minute. For 1,470, about five in six, our pipeline could attach no news within its 60-second matching window. At its best, attribution reached about one move in six, and among moves of 10 cents or more, 26 of 75. That is a floor on what we could source, not a count of moves that happened in silence: news that led the price by minutes was invisible to the matcher.
The map of what we could explain was really a map of where we were looking.
The Orphan Moves · Vera Research
