Ahead of the 55th Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), scheduled to take place August 30 to September 4 in Palau, Pacific Island leaders failed to reach consensus on a joint statement criticizing China’s submarine-based ballistic missile testing in the Pacific. The split reflects intensifying great-power competition and divergent threat perceptions between external powers and Pacific governments. Yet China’s growing military activities have clearly heightened concerns among forum members.
Besides missile testing, another less visible source of pressure lies in the growing normalization of Chinese naval and coast guard activity in the waters east of Taiwan, a development the PIF has yet to fully connect to its own maritime interests. This maritime gateway east of Taiwan leads directly into the exclusive economic zones that the forum seeks to protect and deserves greater attention from Pacific Island states.
Rather than a distant flashpoint, the waters east of Taiwan form the northern hinge of the same maritime arc that runs through Micronesia and Melanesia, linked by overlapping sea lines of communication and interconnected ocean current systems. This deep-water gateway to the Blue Pacific is increasingly being trespassed and pressured by Chinese government vessels.
