Six months into a conflict with Iran that has closed one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, President Donald Trump appears content to let the clock run. His strategy: squeeze Tehran’s economy until it blinks, and don’t rush to the negotiating table. The result is an oil market stuck in a perpetual state of anxiety.
Brent crude is trading around $84 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate hovers between $78 and $80.
The Strait that holds the global economy hostage
The standoff centers on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula through which roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade passes. Iran closed it in late February 2026, and it has stayed shut ever since.
Trump has described the ongoing back-and-forth with Tehran as “only semi-negotiating,” a phrase that captures his approach with unusual precision. The US is applying economic pressure rather than pursuing a formal diplomatic track, betting that Iran’s deteriorating financial situation will eventually force concessions.
