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AS the US-Iran war threatens to ignite a worldwide energy crisis, another hotspot may come to a boil: Taiwan. During a recent visit to Taipei, I didn’t need to read Mandarin to spot the lead news story every day: Another step in China’s campaign to intimidate the island.
What once would have been deemed a crisis — People’s Liberation Army aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line, PLA vessels and surveillance balloons pressing closer, or Chinese authorities interrogating commercial ship captains — has become a daily ritual.
For the Chinese government, this is a victory in itself. Constant gray-zone coercion is designed not only to frighten Taiwan but also to numb the rest of the world, making Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te sound like the tiresome boy who cried dragon.
Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s strategists watch Hormuz and study something even more valuable than naval frigates: US decision-making. How quickly does the United States respond to threats and attacks? How much political backlash can President Donald Trump tolerate?
