In the dark.
President Donald Trump called off his threatened escalation of the Iran war over the weekend, saying a deal was imminent to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and begin Iran’s “denuclearization” — whatever that means. Iran has not confirmed that a broader agreement with the U.S. is in the offing, but talks early this week between Iran and Oman, with U.S. input and Qatari mediation, have reportedly made progress toward a deal to reopen the strait, which Iran blockaded in response to the American and Israeli bombing campaign in February.
The agreement, which U.S. officials reportedly hope to announce today, will set up a 60-day arrangement between Iran and Oman, which border the strait, to coordinate inbound and outbound traffic along prescribed lanes through their territorial waters. Whether Iran will be allowed to charge fees on shipping through the strait remains unclear: Axios reports that the deal stipulates no tolls or fees during the 60-day period, but the New York Times on Monday cited Iranian officials as saying a “service fee” would be charged, with revenues divided between Iran and Oman, while a U.S. official disputed this claim.
Questions of Iran’s control over the strait or charging fees for transit may prove a sticking point in getting the deal implemented — the same set of issues that doomed a previous ceasefire deal in June. Iranian officials have insisted the strait will not go back to its pre-war status, and Tehran has no reason to give up the leverage it has acquired by closing the strait during this war or sign away its right to do so again in the future, at least not without major concessions and guarantees. Yet U.S. officials have said the strait must return to its previous status as an international waterway with full freedom of navigation. Allowing Iran or any other state to control such a vital shipping lane with tolls would create “a very dangerous precedent,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said recently, and could not be allowed to happen. “I’m not going to let them charge,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “Anybody’s going to charge, we’ll charge” (which, of course, would also violate the same principles of international commerce Rubio is so keen to uphold, but never mind).
