A villager does laundry in a drought-hit area during the dry season, amid forecasts that El Nino may contribute to drier-than-normal conditions, in Gunung Batur village, Cilegon, Banten province, Indonesia, July 17, 2026. [Photo/Agencies]
Asia's economies are staring down a double shock: a looming super El Nino threatens to deepen food insecurity just as the Middle East crisis drives up energy and fertilizer costs.
Analysts said a prolonged dry spell could slash crop yields and push food prices further out of reach for consumers already squeezed by surging inflation.
"The impact of El Nino is just among the many crises that we are facing at the moment," said Paul Teng, a visiting senior fellow in the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
Teng said geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have driven global oil prices higher, are rippling through Asia's transport and farm sectors, fueling inflation across the region. The surge has been compounded by what he called a "fertilizer shock", as the Middle East is a major exporter of crop nutrients.
