At the beginning of the Iran war, I argued that whatever one thought of President Donald Trump’s justifications for striking Iran, the more consequential strategic consequence was to target China’s access to Iranian energy at a moment of maximum vulnerability. In a great power rivalry, every part of the globe interacts with and is dependent upon the other.But energy is a double-edged sword. From Ukraine to the Strait of Hormuz, the wars of the 2020s reveal that energy is no longer one battlefield, but the keystone of modern warfare, which changes how America must approach conflict in the years to come.Russia’s war on Ukraine laid the template. By September 2024, Russian strikes had destroyed 80% of Ukraine’s thermal power capacity and damaged or destroyed more than a third of its hydroelectric generation, leaving millions without heat or electricity through the winter. The goal was to plunge Ukraine into darkness, collapse the economy, and break its industrial capacity that sustained its resistance. Ukraine survived the onslaught but then used Russia’s strategy against it. Ukraine soon launched a drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure that has disabled an estimated 17% of Russia’s refining capacity.
We are spending trillions on the grid. Our enemies are preparing to blow it up
Modern warfare targets energy infrastructure first. As grid vulnerability grows, the best way to win an energy war is to avoid it.
799 words~4 min read
