Labour overtakes Reform UK in polls for first time in over a year

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/uk/gallery/keir-starmer/index.html

Labour has surpassed Reform UK in national polling for the first time in over a year, according to recent surveys. This shift marks a reversal for Reform UK, which had maintained a lead since March 2025 across various polls. The most notable result comes from a More in Common poll, placing Labour at 28% compared to Reform UK’s 24%, with the Conservatives trailing at 22%. Other polls, such as those from YouGov and Survation, show closer competition but still indicate a narrowing gap. This development could have significant implications for the upcoming Clacton by-election, where Nigel Farage of Reform UK is a key figure.

Key Takeaways

Recent polling data suggests a significant shift, with Labour overtaking Reform UK, reflecting a potential change in voter sentiment.

Market pricing for the Clacton by-election appears to have responded to this shift, with the probability of Nigel Farage winning by a large margin decreasing.