Drier-than-normal conditions are favoured across the Indian subcontinent
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The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Seasonal Climate Update has warned of a strong El Niño, which is expected to build up between August and October 2026, bringing above-normal temperatures for much of the world and dramatic changes in rainfall patterns in the months ahead.The report states that El Niño will continue to gradually strengthen into a strong event between August and October 2026. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading centres suggest that key monitoring regions are likely to experience seasonal average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies exceeding 2.9°C.“El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the strongest drivers of year-to-year climate variability. This climate pattern is characterised by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.”El Niño events recur at intervals of two to seven years and last from nine to twelve months. They generally start to develop between March and June, peak in intensity between November and February, and have their largest influence on global temperatures in the year after they are formed.Outlook for IndiaThe forecast predicts a strengthening El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (a climate pattern in which the western Indian Ocean is warmer than average and the eastern Indian Ocean is cooler than average), which together can amplify regional climate impacts such as drought, floods, and wildfire risk, especially around the Indian Ocean basin.“El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat. And this is only a warm-up act. El Niño is strengthening and adding fuel to a planet already on fire. Unless we act to protect people and tackle the root cause of the crisis, the dangers will become deadlier still. The warm-up act is over. We cannot afford to wait for the main event,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.Temperature OutlookThe Global Seasonal Climate Update is predicting a high chance of above-average temperatures for most land areas. The most pronounced signals of this trend extend across Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, much of South America, and New Zealand.Rainfall OutlookThe rainfall outlook for August to October 2026 shows features of a typical strong El Niño event. Above-normal conditions are predicted for the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, Southern Europe, Western North America (south of 45° N), and Southeastern South America.Meanwhile, drier-than-normal conditions are favoured across the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean, northwestern South America, and northern Europe.Published on July 31, 2026
