The OSW Centre for Eastern Studies, a prominent Polish think tank focused on post-Soviet geopolitics, published an analysis on July 14 arguing that Russia’s forthcoming crypto regulation will likely fail at its core objective. The reason is almost comically straightforward: the entities Moscow wants to regulate have no intention of staying inside the regulatory perimeter.
A $200 billion problem hiding in plain sight
According to official Russian figures from February 2026, daily crypto turnover in the country sits at approximately 50 billion roubles, or roughly $650 million. That implies an annualized volume north of $200 billion, with the overwhelming majority flowing through foreign platforms.
Russia ranked 10th in the Chainalysis 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index. On-chain transaction volumes hit $376 billion between July 2024 and June 2025, a 50% jump year-over-year. DeFi usage surged eightfold during the same period.
The analysis, authored by Iwona Wiśniewska, zeroes in on this exact tension. The draft law, titled “On Digital Currency and Digital Rights,” proposes licensing trading platforms and custodians while banning domestic crypto payments. It passed its first reading in the State Duma in April 2026 and is expected to be enacted by autumn 2026.
