The United Nations has been undergoing its most significant overhaul in history, the UN80 initiative, which aims to review mandates, reduce costs, and consider structural changes across the system. This is partly due to mounting arrears, of which more than 95 percent of what is owed to the regular U.N. budget is owed by the United States, historically the organization’s largest financial contributor. In January, Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the U.N. faced “imminent financial collapse,” with long-lasting impact on its global operations.
As the United States becomes a less reliable funder, a tempting assumption has taken hold, that China will step into the space left by Washington. The logic appears straightforward. Against the backdrop of China-U.S. competition and Beijing’s growing ambition in global governance. China routinely presents itself as a defender of true multilateralism. It has become the second-largest contributor to the U.N. regular and peacekeeping budgets and has sought greater representation in international organizations. As Washington turns away from the U.N., Beijing seemingly has both the ambition and the opportunity to take its place.
But China’s pursuit of greater influence should not be mistaken for an attempt to replace the United States. Beijing wants a greater voice at the U.N., but it has shown little willingness to assume the open-ended responsibilities that U.S. leadership has historically entailed. Its engagement is better understood as cautious, selective, and bounded by what Chinese officials repeatedly described as acting “within its own capacity” (力所能及).
