The US has a deadline. On January 1, 2027, American defense contractors and manufacturers must stop buying critical minerals from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Full stop, no exceptions, that’s the law.
There’s just one problem: the US doesn’t have nearly enough of its own supply to replace what it currently buys from those countries.
The math doesn’t work yet
China controls over 80% of global rare earth refining capacity. That’s not a temporary quirk of the market. It’s the result of decades of deliberate industrial policy, cheap labor, and an environmental permitting culture that made processing rare earths economically viable in ways that Western regulators have historically resisted.
The minerals in question aren’t obscure. Rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, and tantalum show up in fighter jets, missile guidance systems, electric vehicle motors, and semiconductor manufacturing. In English: cutting off Chinese supply without a domestic alternative isn’t a bold strategic move. It’s a production stoppage.
