The US economy just printed a number that nobody on Wall Street was fully prepared for. The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI for July 2026 came in at 53.6, well above the forecast of 52.2 and meaningfully higher than June’s reading of 51.9, marking the strongest composite reading in eight months.
A PMI above 50 signals expansion. The further above 50 you go, the faster things are growing.
What is actually driving this number
The services sector did the heavy lifting. The Services Business Activity Index hit 53.6 in July, up sharply from 51.2 in June.
Manufacturing told a more complicated story. The Manufacturing PMI held steady at 53.8, barely changed from June’s 53.9. But the Manufacturing Output Index fell to 53.6 from 56.2 in June, a four-month low.
