Europe could be facing a chilly reception this winter—not just from the lack of warmth, but from sparse natural gas supplies. Equinor’s CEO Anders Opedal has sounded the alarm that the continent might not hit the 80% gas storage threshold this winter. With current levels resting at just 54%, this paints a daunting picture for Europe going into one of the coldest seasons of the year.

The details

This projection is more sobering when you consider it’s the second-lowest natural gas storage levels at this time of year in 15 years. Typically, these levels are higher, thanks in part to the five-year average acting like a trusty weighted blanket over Europe. Yet here we are, well below that comfortable norm.

The key reason for this unprecedented scarcity? A global squeeze on liquefied natural gas (LNG) reserves. Asian nations have been fiercely vying for a share of this energy pie, fueled by persistent geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East. These dynamics have left Europe in a precarious position—not unlike running a marathon without enough water stations.

Last year’s gas storage levels started at 61%, a drop from the preceding year’s 72%. This decline, coupled with ongoing geopolitical issues, has exacerbated the challenge of refilling reserves over summer, casting doubt over Europe’s economic resiliency as winter demand looms.