Europe’s gas cupboard is looking dangerously bare, and one of the continent’s biggest energy suppliers just said the quiet part out loud. Equinor, Norway’s state-controlled energy giant, warned on May 21 that European gas inventories could hit critically low levels if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for one to three months.
The warning comes as European gas storage sits just above 35% full. For context, the seasonal average at this point in the year is roughly 50%. That 15-percentage-point gap is not a rounding error. It is a structural deficit that could define Europe’s energy security heading into next winter.
The math doesn’t work without Hormuz
Helle Ostergaard Kristiansen, Equinor’s Senior Vice President for Gas & Power Trading, laid out the scenario in stark terms. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened quickly, storage levels would only reach about 75% by winter. That sounds manageable until you remember the EU mandates 90% storage capacity between October and early December for the heating season.
A 75% fill rate against a 90% regulatory target is the energy equivalent of showing up to a final exam having studied three-quarters of the material. You might pass, but you probably won’t sleep well.
