President Trump is doubling down on trade confrontations heading into the second half of 2026, wielding tariffs across dozens of bilateral negotiations. The twist that crypto investors should care about: while the trade agenda gets more aggressive, the administration’s digital asset policies remain remarkably separate and supportive.
The trade landscape keeps getting more complicated
The administration’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda, released in March, centers on the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade program. The US uses a 10% baseline tariff as the opening bid, then negotiates higher reciprocal rates from there.
Multiple deals struck in 2025 landed around 15% baseline tariffs. That’s meaningfully higher than pre-2025 levels, and businesses across sectors are still absorbing the cost increases.
In June 2026, Trump signaled he might terminate the USMCA, the trade agreement governing commerce between the US, Mexico, and Canada, rather than renew it before the July 1 deadline. Discussions are reportedly ongoing, but the threat alone sent ripples through North American supply chains.
